Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 1.958019 2.072061 2.191752 2.327167 2.476648 2.637222 2.823572
2025-10-12 1.812916 1.974064 2.151371 2.362554 2.609416 2.891640 3.242833
2025-10-19 1.719694 1.909123 2.124433 2.390430 2.714775 3.103727 3.615637
2025-10-26 1.629762 1.835459 2.075040 2.379465 2.763265 3.241793 3.902198
2025-11-02 1.555895 1.773053 2.031154 2.366994 2.802774 3.365181 4.175794
2025-11-09 1.485416 1.709032 1.979247 2.337866 2.814699 3.448769 4.398785
2025-11-16 1.422962 1.650652 1.929740 2.306578 2.818599 3.518126 4.604635
2025-11-23 1.381886 1.616255 1.907700 2.308226 2.864811 3.647326 4.911265
2025-11-30 1.352351 1.594510 1.899947 2.327153 2.934494 3.814041 5.295116
2025-12-07 1.305214 1.547790 1.856878 2.294729 2.927695 3.864853 5.494093
2025-12-14 1.257559 1.498395 1.807873 2.250991 2.900725 3.881202 5.634228
2025-12-21 1.215964 1.455347 1.765428 2.213955 2.880652 3.905562 5.789774
2025-12-28 1.202041 1.448825 1.772540 2.248423 2.971465 4.117207 6.324253
2026-01-04 1.188678 1.442385 1.779236 2.282288 3.063347 4.339454 6.920230
2026-01-11 1.173704 1.432995 1.781110 2.308637 3.144582 4.551098 7.536577
2026-01-18 1.147802 1.407675 1.759430 2.298272 3.165297 4.657168 7.946416
2026-01-25 1.123039 1.383055 1.737689 2.286481 3.182402 4.757583 8.363185
2026-02-01 1.094840 1.352789 1.706736 2.258932 3.171021 4.803165 8.658374
2026-02-08 1.067518 1.322968 1.675406 2.229328 3.154130 4.836308 8.929618
2026-02-15 1.050832 1.307552 1.664380 2.230888 3.190773 4.977064 9.512536
2026-02-22 1.039700 1.299579 1.663832 2.248797 3.256912 5.183628 10.333027
2026-03-01 1.015444 1.272289 1.633881 2.218113 3.234145 5.204276 10.622389
2026-03-08 0.989258 1.241651 1.598132 2.176700 3.189687 5.175303 10.756255